You couldn't have picked a better day for Dede Scozzafava to drop out in all but name: soaking, cold, miserable.
A day for losing things.
Even before official word spread from Court Street in Watertown, conservative writers were already heralding Scozzafava's decision as their triumph.
For who?
For us. You know, the people who want to make America great again, the little guys, the entrepeneurs, the ones who know what is right, what is wrong, and are ready to take our country back.
Against whom? Them. The media. The party bosses. The unions. ACORN.
Except...it's not true. Not word one of it.
In fact, the two campaigns left standing have been fueled by massive doses of money from political parties and heavily ideological groups. They have communicated almost entirely through paid commercials.
There has been exactly one debate attended by Owens and Hoffman.
The Owens and Hoffman campaigns have done their level best to keep their candidates out of sight, except for carefully stage-managed appearances.
The professionally mean-spirited writers and commentators (mostly of the right, in this case) have trashed Scozzafava, without regard for her entire record.
The race for the 23rd was taken out of our hands - yours and mine - and given to the new professional class of politicians and quasi-politicians, the Rush Limbaughs, the Glenn Becks, the consultants and advertising sages from both camps who will literally stop at nothing to tear the other guy down.
We have lost and lost deeply this time out - not because Dede Scozzafava won't win, but because what has always been primarily local business is now in the hands of people whose interests lie a long ways from here. And make no mistake: the people funding, organizing and supporting the candidates in this race do not care about us - they care about their ideology winning, pure and simple.
***
I'm thinking about an acquaintance from many years ago. He ended up a powerful and highly paid utility executive, but 25 years ago he was a Politics Geek, like the rest of us.
He learned, and then taught me, a most valuable lesson. I pass it on to you, here.
In the early 80s, he was working on the re-election campaign of then Republican state senator Martin Auer.
Auer was being challenged by Syracuse city council woman Nancy Larraine Hoffman, but had a comfortable lead.
As election day approached, Hoffman's numbers started to climb. Not enough to lead, but up.
The Auer camp ignored it. They thought it was noise, or too late to make a difference.
They were wrong. Hoffman won, and held the seat for the next couple of decades.
That loss was a defining event for my friend, who brooded about it for years.
He would tell me - "It doesn't matter how big your margin is, if the numbers are going the wrong way, you're in trouble."
It's almost like physics: numbers at rest tend to stay at rest and numbers in motion tend to stay in motion.
Doug Hoffman's numbers are in motion.
Based on today's Siena College poll, they're moving up more than Democrat Bill Owens, which strongly suggests Owens has a problem in the final 48 hours of the campaign. Hoffman is on a roll, and maybe Owens is too...but it's a lower, slower one.
***
I'm assuming it will be in the paper Sunday, but most essential blogger Jude Seymour is industriously posting responses from each candidate on local issues.
Read what Jude got here: www.watertowndailytimes.com/section/blogs09
***
The full text of Dede Scozzafava's letter to supporters Saturday morning, as she suspended her campaign:
Dear Friends and Supporters:
Throughout the course of my campaign for Congress, I have made the people of the 23rd District and the issues that affect them the focal point of my campaign. As a life long resident of this District, I care deeply and passionately about its people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor, I have always sought to act with the best interest of our District and its residents in mind —and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.
The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I've traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I've been overwhelmed by the amount of support I've received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.
In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money — and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I've said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it's about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.
It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.
On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me — and to those who choose not to — I offer my sincerest thanks.
***
Scozzafava was 'very gracious,' our reporter, Rachel Kent, says. Rachel interviewed her right after Scozzafava broke the news to supporters and says she was clearly upset, but said nothing negative about the other candidates, or the people who worked against her.
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National conservatives could not contain their glee Saturday morning.
An example: michellemalkin.com/2009/10/31/radical-leftist-gop-candidate-dede-scozzafava-quits/
And another: www.redstate.com/erick/2009/10/31/breaking-we-pwnd-the-nrcc-dede-scozzafava-drops-out/
And a third: www.redcounty.com/scozzafava-withdraws
***
Question: how does Scozzafava's support split? Presumably the union folks (and Scozzafava had a lot of union endorsements) go to Owens, the Democratic candidate. I would figure most of the others who go anywhere at all go to Hoffman, but a lot of people may just stay home.
***
The new Siena Poll has a number that stands out screaming: 51 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Scozzafava, compared to 20 percent in the first Siena poll.
Given that Scozzafava has done absolutely nothing in the intervenimng month to warrant such a drop, there's an unavoidable conclusion: advertising.
Scozzafava got it from both sides, and it looks like it worked.
***
The single best line of this race, which I've been meaning to quote for a day now, belongs to Watertown Times editor and occasional sparring partner Bob Gorman, who nailed the essence of the contest in a few stinging words.
"...we should all remember that the 23rd Congressional District has no great significance. And neither did Gettysburg. It's just the place where the great armies met."
I have my differences with the paper, but they have done a magnificent job of covering this race, and in particular of pointing out what's at stake for those of us who actually live here, as opposed to the national parties, outside interests and talking heads who lob grenades at each other, with the rest of us as collateral damage.
Let Bob's words stand as the epitaph for the 23rd.
***
Former Governor George Pataki makes joint appearances with Hoffman this afternoon in Oswego County..
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The Albany Times-Union does a great job of drilling down into the geography and disposition of the 23rd.
Read the whole article: blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/19497/how-ny-23-became-a-dead-heat/
