As supporters of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman converge on Watertown for the Last Big Push, their media is already declaring victory.

Even if Hoffman doesn't win, the story goes, we have shown the true path, the way politicians must travel in order to be bonded with We The People.

However, there's one tiny problem with that tale, and it's buried somewhere in the mounds of paper on my desk. I pulled the records of John McHugh for the last ten years or so, and the simple fact is this: McHugh, a moderate, buried the opposition. The Democrats didn't even bother one time out, and put up only token opposition the rest of the time.

If Hoffman wins tomorrow by, say, five points, he will have achieved the smallest margin a Republican/Conservative has come up with in recent memory. In other words, a safe Republican district is now in play.

Remember also, Democrats at the state level can gerrymander the 23rd out of existence in a couple of years if they lose.

If Dede Scozzafava switches parties and if Darrel Aubertine jumps into the fight for the 23rd next year, we could end up with more Democrats in power in the north country.

It's hard to see how this is a win for the GOP., unless - of course - you believe purification is the point of politics.

UPDATE 7:25 PM: Jude Seymour makes a nice catch: Doug Hoffman considers the Father Coughlin of the modern age, Glenn Beck, to be one of his 'mentors.'

Read Jude's note on the subject here: www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091102/BLOGS09/911029968/BLOGS09

Let me add only that I watched Beck's show today, as I do most days, and he straight up said he really doesn't care about local politics. 'I do a national show,' he added.

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UPDATE 11:55 AM: The Wall Street Journal doesn't have buyer's remorse by any means, but is sounding a cautionary note about the 23rd today.

Operative quote:

But that lesson will be for naught if conservatives conclude that their victory is reason to challenge any candidate who doesn't agree with them on every issue. The truth is that some conservatives are as bloody-minded and intolerant of all dissent as the hard left is at the Daily Kos. A majority political party requires a far more diverse coalition than the audience for your average right-wing blogger or talk show host. Some of those voices prefer having Democrats in power because it drives up their own ratings.

Read the whole thing here: online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703932904574509633956777194.html

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UPDATE 8:10 AM: The web site 'Politico' is up with an article detailing how Democrats got Republican Dede Scozzafava to endorse Democratic candidate Bill Owens Sunday.

What jumps out at me - a line in the story that it's a 'real possibility' Scozzafava will switch parties.

According to 'Politico,' Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver played key roles, as did June O'Neill.

Read the entire piece here: www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29013.html 

Credit where credit is due: the Watertown Times also reports on a meeting involving Scozzafava, her husband, O'Neill and Congressman Steve Israel Saturday.

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We are waaaay past the point at which we can keep track of more than a fraction of what's being said and done about the race for the 23rd Congressional District.

The big events today are Vice-President Biden stumping for Bill Owens, starting in Watertown this morning, and entertainer John Rich and former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson playing the fairgrounds in Watertown for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman this evening.

Here's what looks like the most important stuff, as of 7:10 am Monday morning, otherwise known as V minus 22 hours and 50 minutes.

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The Watertown Times endorsed Democratic candidate Bill Owens Sunday, after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out.

Key line:

It is frightening that Mr. Hoffman is so beholden to right-wing ideologues who dismiss Northern New Yorkers as parochial when people here simply want to know how Mr. Hoffman will protect their interests in Washington.

Read the entire piece here: www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/OPINION01/311019918/-1/OPINION

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Did you hear from Rudy Giuliani yesterday? He recorded a message on behalf of Hoffman.

At the same time, Scozzafava's former campaign manager, Matt Burns, moves to the Hoffman camp.

Matt was one of the reliably sane people during an insane month of politics.

Read about the switch here: washingtonindependent.com/66027/ny-23-rudy-giuliani-robocalls-and-mayors-for-hoffman

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The Washington Times, which hammered Scozzafava on its editorial page, sends a reporter to our neck of the woods and discovers people - gasp! - don't like all the outside influence in the race.

washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/02/outsiders-influence-irks-voters-in-ny-house-race/

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We'll hear from Siena College one more time, with a special poll this morning. My read of the note they sent out suggests this won't be a horse race poll. It'll be about attitudes towards the candidates. 

UPDATE 9:45 AM: Wrong! The poll puts Hoffman ahead of Owens by five points, with 18 percent of the voters undecided.

First reaction? Hoffman's voters will walk through fire to get to the polls Tuesday. Typically, late undecideds tend to not vote.  Conclusion (remembering I'm really bad at this stuff): this is Hoffman's race to lose.

And if you want to know why the last day of the campaign is in our neck of the woods, consider that the Siena poll gives Hoffman the lead to the south, Owens the lead to the north, and our area the battleground.