The big winner so far after Dede Scozzafava's sudden decision to quit the race for Congress is "None Of The Above".

A new poll from Siena College's Research Institute finds that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has opened a lead in the days after Scozzafava's departure, but that most of her voters appear to have gone into the "Undecided" category.

The poll found that the number of undecided voters doubled since Siena's last poll, released just last Friday.  18% of voters, nearly 1 in 5, say they don't know who they'll vote for tomorrow.

Hoffman holds a 41-36% lead in the new poll over Democrat Bill Owens.

(Details of the Nov. 1 poll are here.  Also: Siena's Oct. 31 poll results; Oct. 15 poll results)

It's important to note that the poll was conducted on Saturday, after Scozzafava had quit the race and offered no endorsement.  On Sunday, Scozzafava publicly backed Owens and even appeared at one of his campaign events, according to the Watertown Daily Times.

In that light, Scozzafava's departure is better news for Owens than for Hoffman.

The percentages of Democrats who plan to vote for Owens over Hoffman (62-15%) is roughly equal to the percentages of Republicans who plan to vote for Hoffman over Owens (63-14%).  There are more Republicans than Democrats in the 23rd Congressional District, so that split gives Hoffman an edge. 

However. there's been significant movement among the independent voters who will decide the race.  They now favor Owens 43-37%, with 18% undecided.  Just days before, the independents stood at 40-35% for Hoffman, with just 9% undecided.

Owens continues to hold a solid lead in his home area, the eastern North Country counties, while Hoffman's lead in the Central New York counties of Oswego, Madison and Oneida remains strong.  The two men are virtually tied in Scozzafava's backyard of Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.

The single largest bloc of undecided voters is the 24% who say they are liberal.  Liberals support Owens by a 59-11% margin over Hoffman, while conservatives prefer Hoffman 70-10%.  It's interesting to note that 14% of conservatives remain undecided, despite the barrage of conservative endorsements coming Hoffman's way, from Sarah Palin and (belatedly) Newt Gingrich to the Republican hierarchy in Congress to state and local GOP leaders.

Siena's poll also finds residents of the district have a mildly favorable opinion of Vice President Joe Biden, who is campaigning for Owens today in Watertown.

THE FULL TEXT OF THE SIENA POLL NEWS RELEASE:

On the eve of Election Day, Conservative Doug Hoffman has opened up a five point lead over Democrat Bill Owens in the race for the 23rd Congressional District. 

Republican Assembly member Dede Scozzafava still gets six percent support, but since her decision to suspend her campaign and support Owens, the number of undecided voters has doubled from nine percent to 18 percent, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters.
 
”Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.  “It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.”
 
“Hoffman has increased his lead among Republicans, while Owens maintains his lead among Democrats and has now taken the lead with independent voters,” Greenberg said.  “Owens kept his lead in the northeastern counties steady, while Hoffman extended his lead in the southern counties, and the two are dead even in the northwestern counties, the area in which Scozzafava previously led.”
 
“Hoffman’s favorability rating shot up from a net positive four points to a now net positive 14 points – 47-33 percent,” Greenberg said.  “Owens’ favorability dropped slightly from a net positive four points to a net negative one point.
 
“Vice President Joe Biden comes to the 23rd CD today with a 41-37 percent favorability rating, although he is strong, 64-18 percent, with Democrats,” Greenberg said.
 
“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race,” Greenberg said.  “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them.  Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”

- Siena College poll press release