Fox News just flashed on the screen that the Republican Party has made 140,000 calls on behalf of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

If true, I'm figuring that's one call for every voter today.

There were 261,000 votes cast in the 23rd in 2008, a Presidential year, and 184,000 in 2006, when we elected a Governor.

Based on some math and guesswork, I'm expecting today's turnout to be no more than 79 percent of 2006's total, or 145,000.

I won't be surprised if it's significantly less. I'll be shocked if it's more.

In checking with Boards of Election in our area, we're hearing terms like 'light to moderate,'

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There have been various reports of 'electioneering,' (getting too close to a polling place and campaigning for your candidate).

Jude Seymour has a good wrap up on his blog here: www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091103/BLOGS09/911039984/BLOGS09

We've had reports from the Town of Watertown, Fowler and Parishville.

And my wife reported that at 6:30 this morning, there was what she described as a 'kickline' (think the Rockettes) for Democratic candidate Bill Owens in front of the State Office Building.

It wasn't, she said, pretty.

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To return to a subject I touched on yesterday, if Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman wins by four or five points tonight, here's how it will fit with recent elections.

In 2008, John McHugh beat the Democrat 65 percent to 35 percent.

In 2006, it was 63 percent to 37 percent.

In 2004, 70 percent to 30 percent.

In 2002, unopposed.

My point being - NY 23 has been a very, very safe district up until this year, and likely would have remained safe with Dede Scozzafava running, given that she is the candidate most like McHugh.

By making their big push, the Tea Party folks and conservative activists in the Republican Party have taken this seat out of the safe column and put it in play.

Those activists have been clear that they're ok with things coming out this way: it's principle, not party, they say.

We will see if they're as happy next year, if the Democrats make a serious play for the seat.

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Another reason not to be happy with a Hoffman victory if you're conservative, (six reasons, to be exact), can be found here.