Clarkson Professor Tries To Predict Oil Spill's Path

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Story Published: May 3, 2010 at 5:27 PM EDT

Story Updated: May 3, 2010 at 7:16 PM EDT

Clarkson Environmental Engineering Professor Poojitha Yapa knows that predicting the path of where an oil spill will go isn't easy. 

But thanks to a computer model he helped design, federal officials are able to get a better idea as they track the path of a massive offshore oil slick that continues to threaten the Gulf Coast.

"It's very complex and there aren't many models in the world," said Yapa.
 
Gallons of oil continue to gush from the ruptured underwater well since the April 20 oil platform explosion.

Yapa worries the oil slick could bring an environmental and economic nightmare depending where its path leads.

That's why he's been working with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration helping predict where the oil may end up hitting shore.

"It all depends on the water current.  I can't tell you how different it is and that is exactly why we need a model," said Yapa.
 
Despite the limited amount of data available from the oil platform explosion, the Clarkson researcher says the computer model he helped develop eight years ago with graduate students has performed extremely well.
 
"This gives us the opportunity to test our model," said Yapa.
 
For now, it appears winds and water currents could send the oil slick anywhere along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida.

Officials are unwilling to describe a worst case scenario or the odds for the oil to be carried by the Gulf Stream current around the tip of Florida and eventually up the east coast.

Yapa has been advising federal officials as they look to simulate a variety of possible paths based on available data.

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