Lake Effect Storm: Our Latest Predictions.

As of Thursday 9:15pm
Expected snow accumulation
Expected snow accumulation(WWNY)
Published: Nov. 17, 2022 at 12:35 PM EST|Updated: Nov. 17, 2022 at 9:18 PM EST
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(WWNY) - This is as of Thursday at 9:15pm.

First, the official warnings as the lake effect snow machine swings from Oswego County up to Jefferson County by early Friday morning.

A lake effect snow warning for Oswego and northern Oneida is set to expire at 4 a.m. Friday. They could see from 10 to 18 inches of snow there.

For Lewis County, the warning will expire at 4 a.m. Saturday. From 8 to 14 inches could fall there.

St. Lawrence County isn’t being left out. A warning there was issued from 4 a.m. Friday until 7 a.m. on Sunday for all but the county’s northern tip. Places south of State Route 68 could see a foot or two of snow while places to the north could see from 6 to 10 inches.

Jefferson County’s lake effect warning starts at 1 a.m. Friday and will last through 1 p.m. on Sunday.

Now here’s what our weather team is predicting as of 9:15pm Thursday:

Lake effect snow is expected to hit Northern Jefferson County, Northern Lewis County, and into parts of St Lawrence County. While lake effect will last from Thursday night until Sunday night the heaviest of the snow will fall from 7 AM Friday until 10 AM Saturday. As we go throughout the morning hours on Friday a band of lake effect snow will be getting organized over Northern Jefferson County and into St Lawrence County. The band of snow will remain between the area of Watertown and the St Lawrence River during the morning hours Friday.

By the time we reach the afternoon hours Friday the lake effect snow band will become very well organized with snowfall rates increasing to 2 inches or more an hour. As we get into the late afternoon and early evening Friday the band of lake effect should be impacting the City of Watertown or just to the North of the City. At this time the worst of the lake effect Friday evening and overnight into Saturday looks to be impacting Watertown, Fort Drum, Evans Mills, Philadelphia, Antwerp, areas and even into Western St Lawrence County. From 5 PM Friday until 7 AM Saturday this band of lake effect snow will be capable of producing snowfall rates of 4 inches an hour or more.

With snowfall rates of 4 inches or more an hour travel will become difficult to impossible as whiteout conditions will be occurring. Another very interesting thig that will be happen with this lake effect snow from Friday into Saturday morning will be the lightning and thunder.

Snowfall totals by Sunday night are forecasted to be 24 to 36 inches or more for most of Northern Jefferson County and stretching into Western St Lawrence County. The important thing to note with this lake effect snow event is there is a very strong possibility that some areas in the Watertown, Fort Drum, Philadelphia, and Antwerp areas could receive well over 36 inches of snow. This will really depend on how long the lake effect band will stay over one area. If we are getting 4 inches or more of snow an hour with a near stationary band, it is very possible for parts of Northern Jefferson County to see 48 inches or more of snow.

As we see the lake effect band become established Friday morning and into Friday afternoon the expected snow accumulations will be adjusted to give a better idea of how much our end totals should be.

Make sure to download the 7News weather app, watch our local newscasts and follow Kris Hudson on Facebook as we update this lake effect snowstorm.